Posts Tagged ‘VUCA’

Santa Claus and VUCA

Monday, December 15th, 2014

The Holiday season set me thinking.VUCA and its impact on strategy

One of the traditions in our version of the Holidays is the letter/email from each child to Santa Claus, the determination if the child has been naughty or nice and, assuming the latter, the resulting delivery of gifts on Christmas morning.

To execute successfully, Santa manufactures or purchases the gifts then packages and delivers them.

These operations take place in his workshop and distribution centre, located at the North Pole and staffed by elves.

This much we know for fact.

This year, however, there’s a question around Santa’s strategy which is of fundamental interest to all strategy consultants.

What is the impact, if any, of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity)?

Academics and key figures in the consulting world appear to agree that VUCA exists. But that’s about it.

Because, while some say it has made strategy and strategic planning redundant, others argue it has no impact whatsoever on the need for an organization to develop and execute a coherent strategy.

It’s important at this point to determine Santa’s KPI’s.

The 2 critical performance factors are accuracy (the right kid gets the right toy) and on time delivery (the toys are delivered during the night on Christmas Eve). Quality is irrelevant because kids spend more time playing with the wrapping than with the presents.

It’s assumed that Santa has availed himself (I’m assigning a male orientation to the incumbent. A discussion of the suitability of other genders for the role is a topic for a future post) of all modern processes and technologies.

Lean manufacturing; warehouse management systems; mobile computing; performance-based compensation for elves; and video monitoring of child behavior, with NSA input on social media patterns; the use of ‘big data’ etc., etc., are all givens.

And Santa’s strategy is tried and tested over many years.

So the only variable is VUCA.

The only way we can be sure of the outcome is to wait until Christmas morning and conduct rapid research by monitoring social media trends and conducting structured telephone interviews with a representative sample of the population.

Now, I am not given to making predictions.

But, given the season, I am going to break this habit. I predict that Santa’s performance this year will be at least on a par with previous years.

Which means that VUCA will have had as little impact on his need for a strategy as it has on the needs of every other organization.

Happy Holidays!

 

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Jim Stewart is the founding Partner at ProfitPATH. He has been working with business owners for over 16 years to increase profits and improve the value of their companies. LinkedIn

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